PredictCentr
JD Vance — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner
Kalshi vs Polymarket, compared live. Resolves 2028-11-07.
Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a promise of any return.
Live Odds — Will JD Vance Win?
Best available price: Kalshi (+2 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Market Brief
Vance's odds have drifted down through 2026 after peaking near 33% last October, and he's now running roughly even with Marco Rubio in the high-teens on both platforms. The move tracks a run of soft approval numbers and reporting on private doubts within Trump's circle about Vance leading the MAGA coalition. Gavin Newsom has been the main beneficiary on the Democratic side, closing the gap with the highest trading volume of any non-Vance candidate.
News & Context
Vance Says Israeli Campaign Tried to Sway US Opinion Against Iran Diplomacy
Vance Tells Joe Rogan Trump Team 'Mishandled' Epstein Case, Alleges Intel Ties
Vance: Reaction to False Michelle Obama Insult at White House UFC Fight Was 'Totally Disproportionate'
Politico Reports JD Vance 'Talks Too Much'
JD Vance Criticized for Using 'Potty Mouth' Language Around Children
Vance Makes Stop in Des Moines, Rallies Support for Nunn Ahead of Midterms
JD Vance's Approval Rating Plunges to New Historic Low- Erika Kirk Endorses JD Vance for President
What to Watch
- 2026-11-03US midterm elections — a strong or weak GOP showing will reshape 2028 field narratives
- 2027 (TBD)Expected window for major contenders to formally launch or rule out 2028 campaigns
- 2028-01 (TBD)Iowa caucuses — traditionally the first nominating contest; exact date not yet set
- 2028-02 (TBD)New Hampshire primary — exact date not yet set
- 2028 Summer (TBD)Republican National Convention — nominee formally confirmed
- 2028 Fall (TBD)General election debates
- 2028-11-07Election Day — market resolution