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Live Odds - Will GTA 6 be released in 2026?
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
Kalshi
Sep 6, 2026Kalshi91.0%
Just In
Catastrophic GTA VI Leak Is a Full Working Build — Notorious Hacker CyberLeek Taunts Rockstar Games
GTA 6 Trailer Coming to Netflix, YouTube Aug. 27
Take-Two CEO Gives New Official Statement on GTA 6's Release Date
'GTA 6' Release Delayed to November 2026
Grand Theft Auto 6 Delayed Again, But It'll Still Ship in 2026
GTA 6 Now Delayed Until Nov. 2026 as Take-Two CEO Says 'When Our Competitors Go to Market Before Something Was Ready, Bad Things Happen'
Catastrophic GTA VI Leak Is a Full Working Build — Notorious Hacker CyberLeek Taunts Rockstar Games
GTA 6 Trailer Coming to Netflix, YouTube Aug. 27
Take-Two CEO Gives New Official Statement on GTA 6's Release Date
'GTA 6' Release Delayed to November 2026
Grand Theft Auto 6 Delayed Again, But It'll Still Ship in 2026
GTA 6 Now Delayed Until Nov. 2026 as Take-Two CEO Says 'When Our Competitors Go to Market Before Something Was Ready, Bad Things Happen'
Market Brief
- Fans of the GTA franchise looking forward to the next installment have been waiting almost a decade, including a planning stage and then official build stage that began in 2020.
- The release has faced several delays and set backs, initially targeted for 2025 but later pushed back to May 2026 - now supposedly some point in later 2026.
- Chances of a 2026 release hit a low of 61% in 2025 when that first delay was announced as fans seemed to lose hope in the production, but have since resurged to 80%+.
- Recently, multiple game play leaks have caused fans to regain hope, with widely-shared footage implying that a playable version of the game is now available.
- Game creator Rockstar has also announced an Extended Look at the new GTA that will go live on Netflix towards the end of August.
How This Resolves
- Kalshi's own wording: "If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
- Rockstar's own confirmed release date, November 19, 2026, already sits comfortably inside this window - the market is really pricing the risk of a third delay pushing the game into 2027.
- No direct Polymarket equivalent exists for this specific window. The closest Polymarket contract asks the inverse question - 'GTA 6 launch postponed again?', resolving by Nov 19, 2026 - rather than a same-scale 'released by' market, so it isn't tracked on this page.
News & Context
GTA 6 Trailer Coming to Netflix, YouTube Aug. 27
Catastrophic GTA VI Leak Is a Full Working Build — Notorious Hacker CyberLeek Taunts Rockstar Games
Take-Two CEO Gives New Official Statement on GTA 6's Release Date
GTA 6 Now Delayed Until Nov. 2026 as Take-Two CEO Says 'When Our Competitors Go to Market Before Something Was Ready, Bad Things Happen'
Grand Theft Auto 6 Delayed Again, But It'll Still Ship in 2026
'GTA 6' Release Delayed to November 2026
What to Watch
- 2026-11-12Digital pre-load begins for players who pre-ordered
- 2026-11-19Rockstar's officially confirmed release date
- OngoingAny further statements from Take-Two on earnings calls before launch
- 2026-12-31Kalshi's resolution cutoff - market resolves
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