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Carlos Alcaraz Returns to Win in Straight Sets: Clear Favorite for US Open at 37%

Carlos Alcaraz Returns to Win in Straight Sets: Clear Favorite for US Open at 37%

It has been months since Carlos Alcaraz, the man with seven major titles to his name, has played in front of his fans. He has been dealing with a wrist injury for which he has spent five long months away from the tour, but he couldn't have asked for a better return in the US Open.

Alcaraz defeated Roman Safiullin 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in Arthur Ashe Stadium in the first round of the Open. The 23-year-old put to bed any concerns that he wouldn't be able to return immediately at the top of his game, defeating Safiullin in straight sets 139 days after playing his last singles match.

I was worried about the forehand speed, but today it was higher than it was last year

American tennis legend and 2003 US Open Champion Andy Roddick commented on Alcaraz's performance on the Served Podcast. He said: "I can't imagine a better match coming back than what Carlos played today. I was worried about the forehand speed, but today it was higher than it was last year."

Alcaraz missed Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and most of the North American Summer as a result of the injury. Before that, he had already won the Australian Open in January to complete the Career Grand Slam.

Two exits from the competition have boosted Alcaraz's chances considerably. Novak Djokovic suffered a shocking first-round defeat to Argentine Mariano Navone on Monday. It's the first time the Serbian has exited the tournament in the first round. He was aiming for his fifth US Open title and 25th Grand Slam win.

Then, Jannik Sinner's withdrawal from the US Open has left the door wide open to Alcaraz. The Italian announced on Friday that he would have to exit the competition due to a right knee injury. Sinner's last tournament was Wimbledon, where he claimed his fifth major trophy.

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Kalshi and Polymarket odds: Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 US Open · as of Sep 2, 2026

Alcaraz's strong performance and the absence of his best competition are both showing in the odds. The Spaniard is now 37% for the win with Polymarket. German Alexander Zverev is next up at 20% having rallied just in time to defeat Lorenzo Sonego and avoid a first-round exit, while American Taylor Fritz is 8% after beating Darwin Blanch in straight sets.

The Men's final will take place on September 13 at the Arthur Ashe Stadium. Alcaraz will play Jaime Faria next, a Portuguese player ranked ATP 72.