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NBA Investigation Over: Kawhi Leonard to Toronto Odds Hit 97%

NBA Investigation Over: Kawhi Leonard to Toronto Odds Hit 97%

It seems the Toronto Raptors and their fans can finally breathe a sigh of relief after the conclusion of the salary cap circumvention investigation into Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors signed a deal in principle for Leonard back in June, but it has faced delays and uncertainty due to a probe into the LA Clippers star.

The NBA has now docked the Clippers five first-round draft picks and fined the team $30m as a result of a "pattern of misconduct." The basketball organization determined that the Clippers improperly funnelled off-court endorsement opportunities to Leonard through corporate partners in exchange for team business.

In addition, team owner Steve Ballmer must endure a one-year suspension from all league and team activities. The NBA said that Ballmer failed "to create conditions under which his organization abided by the NBA's circumvention rules."

heavily biased investigation seeking to justify a predetermined narrative

The Clippers have fired back at the NBA, deeming the investigation a "heavily biased investigation seeking to justify a predetermined narrative rather than facts and evidence."

While the team itself has taken the brunt of the blame, Leonard has a punishment of his own. The two-time NBA champion must pay $700,000 in restitution to the league. The star forward has denied he knew about "anyone's part to circumvent the salary cap," adding that "integrity and respect for this game are fundamental" to who he is.

Whatever the case, the ending of the probe leaves the door open for Leonard to join his former team the Raptors, with whom he won a championship in 2019. "As I return to Toronto, I am focused on what I can control, closing this chapter, and moving forward with a clean slate," he said.

Odds for Leonard to actually make it to the Raptors fluctuated as the investigation dragged on. At one point, they dropped as low as 51% when journalist Pablo Torre revealed another hidden deal between Leonard and Daktronics. Many analysts believed the deal might collapse as a result.

Now though, odds for Leonard becoming a Raptor again are 97%.

0%50%100%May 7Sep 3, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket odds: Kawhi Leonard's next team is the Toronto Raptors · as of Sep 3, 2026