Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a promise of any return.
Miami Heat
Final Odds - Will LeBron sign with the Heat?
Best available price: Polymarket (+0.8 pts)
Final odds as of settlement - no longer updating
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Jul 25, 2026Kalshi1.0%Polymarket0.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers
Final Odds - Will LeBron return to the Cavaliers?
Best available price: Polymarket (+0.9 pts)
Final odds as of settlement - no longer updating
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Jul 25, 2026Kalshi1.0%Polymarket0.1%
Just In
LeBron James Lands With 76ers: NBA Superstar Picks Philly Over Cavs, Heat in Shocking Move
Miami Heat Explain Viral LeBron James Press Conference Mix-Up
Miami Heat Posts and Deletes LeBron James Introductory Press Conference Link to YouTube Page
Donovan Mitchell Openly Recruits LeBron James Back to the Cavs
LeBron James Reportedly Shifts 'Focus' to Three Teams in NBA Free Agency
Giannis Changes Everything in Miami—but Solves Very Little
LeBron James Lands With 76ers: NBA Superstar Picks Philly Over Cavs, Heat in Shocking Move
Miami Heat Explain Viral LeBron James Press Conference Mix-Up
Miami Heat Posts and Deletes LeBron James Introductory Press Conference Link to YouTube Page
Donovan Mitchell Openly Recruits LeBron James Back to the Cavs
LeBron James Reportedly Shifts 'Focus' to Three Teams in NBA Free Agency
Giannis Changes Everything in Miami—but Solves Very Little
Market Brief
- Despite an apparent PR leak from Miami that suggested LeBron James was a done deal, the NBA star signed with the Philadelphia 76ers on July 24, 2026.
- He signed a two-year, $8m deal, shocking to many considering that neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had Philadelphia as a real contender throughout the race.
- Cleveland was the clear favorite for most of the market's history, reaching as high as 61% in early July, but Miami surpassed that in mid-July and held the edge until the final announcement came.
How This Resolves
- Resolves to whichever team LeBron officially signs with (or, if he stays put or retires, resolves to the Lakers).
- One real gap between the platforms: Kalshi's per-team markets stop trading and resolve based on a signing 'before Oct 23, 2026,' while Polymarket's cutoff is Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If LeBron signs in that Oct 24-31 window, the two platforms could show different outcomes for a few days - worth knowing if you're comparing them closely in that stretch.
News & Context
LeBron James Lands With 76ers: NBA Superstar Picks Philly Over Cavs, Heat in Shocking Move
Miami Heat Explain Viral LeBron James Press Conference Mix-Up
Miami Heat Posts and Deletes LeBron James Introductory Press Conference Link to YouTube Page
Donovan Mitchell Openly Recruits LeBron James Back to the Cavs
LeBron James Reportedly Shifts 'Focus' to Three Teams in NBA Free Agency
Giannis Changes Everything in Miami—but Solves Very Little
What to Watch
- OngoingFree agency meetings, podcast leaks, and reports - this market has swung double digits in a day on rumors alone
- 2026-10-23Kalshi's team markets stop trading / resolve by this date
- 2026-10-31Polymarket's resolution deadline - if undecided, both platforms default to the Lakers
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