Israel and Turkey are not on the best of terms, and haven't been for some time. Now, the former has signed a defense pact with Greece, which although not an enemy of Turkey, is a major rival in the Aegean.
The situation has been heating up over the past weeks. Turkey has called for the arrest of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the form of an Interpol Red Notice. In response, Netanyahu launched a scathing attack on Turkey leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, deeming him an "antisemitic dictator who massacred Kurds."
Some geopolitical commentators have expressed concern that tensions could bubble over into a major conflict, especially after Israel recently bombed a Syrian air base where Turkish troops were supposedly about to deploy. Turkey has denied that it has any military presence in the country, but has declared it will support Syria's sovereignty.
“a multilayered air defense system to defend the country against any potential threats”
In the latest development, Israel will sign its $3.6bn air defense pact with Greece on Monday. It will create an "Achilles Shield," a multilayered air defense system to defend the country against any potential threats from neighboring countries. The agreement will become the largest defense export deal in Israel's history, and includes Barak MX air defense technology.
Importantly, Greece and Turkey are both NATO members, so they are far from enemies. However, there is tension between the two European nations, mainly in disputed Aegean maritime zones. The two have also locked horns more recently over offshore energy exploration.
Turkey signed its own defense agreement recently too. Sealed on August 8, the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement includes Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Analysts named Jordan, Syria, Qatar, and Kuwait could join next, while Egypt and even Iran have been floated as potential candidates by some experts.
Despite this, the odds of an Israel-Turkey military clash have lowered on Polymarket. The odds of conflict before the end of the year are at 13%. They were as high as 17% on August 24. Meanwhile, the chances of a conflict between Greece and Turkey are just 4%.