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Ken Paxton
Live Odds - Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Senate race?
Best available price: Polymarket (+1 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Sep 7, 2026Kalshi51.0%Polymarket50.5%
James Talarico
Live Odds - Will James Talarico win the Texas Senate race?
Best available price: Kalshi (+2 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Sep 7, 2026Kalshi49.0%Polymarket50.5%
Just In
Talarico Wants to Unearth Paxton's Depositions to Keep Focus on Opponent's Past in Texas Senate Race
Democrats Gain Momentum in Pivotal US Senate and Governor's Races in Texas
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas' U.S. Senate race
Tracking the money raised and spent in the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn for U.S. Senate GOP nomination
Talarico Wants to Unearth Paxton's Depositions to Keep Focus on Opponent's Past in Texas Senate Race
Democrats Gain Momentum in Pivotal US Senate and Governor's Races in Texas
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas' U.S. Senate race
Tracking the money raised and spent in the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn for U.S. Senate GOP nomination
Market Brief
- Fueled by an endorsement from President Trump, Ken Paxton managed to defeat John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff in May with a 28-point landslide.
- The Democratic nominee James Talarico has more cash on his side, outraising Paxton with more than $72m versus Paxton's $16.8m raised.
- Despite the gap in their funding, the gap between their prices has been closing since the beginning of the race, now close to a coin flip with Paxton the slight favorite.
- Polling has shown a different story though, with independent polls in late July and early August indicating a two to five point lead for Talarico.
How This Resolves
- Resolves once Ken Paxton or James Talarico is sworn in as Texas' next U.S. Senator - Kalshi and Polymarket both track this as a Republican-vs-Democrat market, but Paxton and Talarico are the two parties' confirmed general-election nominees, so a party win is effectively a win for that nominee.
- Covers any runoff scenario, though Texas Senate races don't have a general-election runoff - the November 3, 2026 result stands.
- Kalshi can close the market early once the winner is officially declared, rather than waiting for the swearing-in.
News & Context
Talarico Wants to Unearth Paxton's Depositions to Keep Focus on Opponent's Past in Texas Senate Race
Democrats Gain Momentum in Pivotal US Senate and Governor's Races in Texas
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas' U.S. Senate race
Tracking the money raised and spent in the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn for U.S. Senate GOP nomination
What to Watch
- OngoingWhether Paxton agrees to a televised debate - his campaign says he will, but hasn't committed to a host, while Talarico has already accepted three
- OngoingWhether Talarico's fundraising lead and polling edge start moving the Kalshi/Polymarket price, which still favors Paxton
- 2026-11-03Election Day - market resolution
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