Tarik Skubal's Next Team

Tarik Skubal's fate was sealed when the Detroit Tigers blew a 7-0 lead in their game with the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, losing 10-9 in the end.
It left the Tigers, holding a 51-58 record this season, with no choice but to sell two-time Cy Young Award winner Skubal, with just days to find the best option before a deadline on Aug 3.
Just as prediction markets clearly favored, the Tigers traded Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug 2, 2026, ahead of the deadline, in exchange for Zyhir Hope and pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith.

By Owain Flanders · Updated by hand Aug 3, 2026

How This Resolves

Resolves to whichever team Tarik Skubal is officially on before Mar 25, 2027 - if he's still with Detroit or has retired by then, the 'Detroit Tigers' outcome resolves Yes instead.
Kalshi's own wording: "If Tarik Skubal's next team is Los Angeles D before Mar 25, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket has a market on this too, but it asks a narrower question - whether a trade happens by the Aug 3, 2026 deadline specifically, defaulting to 'Detroit Tigers' if not. That's a different, nearer-term question from Kalshi's season-spanning contract, so it isn't paired here as a direct comparison - its live number is quoted in the Market Brief instead.

News & Context

What to Watch

2026-08-03
MLB trade deadline, 6pm ET - executives reportedly expect any deal to land by the morning of the deadline itself
Ongoing
Any official trade announcement from the Tigers or an acquiring team - this would resolve the market immediately
2027-03-25
Kalshi's resolution cutoff - market resolves