Donald Trump - Out as President Before 2027?

Despite repeated viral posts on social media suggesting high odds for Trump being ejected from his Presidency early, the odds have remained low for this market at around 5-6%.
There hasn't been any serious formal threat to Trump's position, the closest being a bill from Rep. Jamie Raskin in April which assessed invoking the 25th Amendment over concerns of Trump's mental fitness.
Despite that bill, the White House has repeatedly asserted Trump is in "excellent health," and Trump has claimed he has "aced" cognitive exams.
The reason Trump's removal is such an unlikely event relates to structural hurdles, including the necessity of a two-thirds Senate supermajority for an impeachment conviction.

By Owain Flanders · Updated by hand Aug 20, 2026

How This Resolves

Both platforms require an actual, permanent departure from office - resignation, conviction and removal following impeachment, or a sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 process (both Houses of Congress upholding the Vice President and Cabinet's determination of presidential inability by a two-thirds vote). A temporary Section 3 handover, an unconfirmed Section 4 invocation, or impeachment without removal do not count on either platform.
Kalshi's own wording: "If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
One real gap between the platforms: Polymarket's tracked contract resolves by Dec 31, 2026, while Kalshi's resolves a day later, before Jan 1, 2027.

News & Context

What to Watch

Ongoing
Any further health disclosures or physical exam results released by the White House
November 2026
US midterm elections - a shift in congressional control could change the political calculus around removal efforts
2026-12-31
Polymarket's resolution cutoff - market resolves
2027-01-01
Kalshi's resolution cutoff - one day later than Polymarket's

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