Will the US Take Control of Any Part of Canada Before 2029?

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Live Odds - Will the United States take control of any part of Canada before 2029?

Kalshi

Chance of Yes8.1%

Bid 8.1% / Ask 15.0%

Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s

Price History

Kalshi

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Market Brief

The US has locked horns with its neighbor to the North often during President Donald Trump's second term in office.
Many times, Trump has suggested that Canada should become the 51st state by joining the US, most recently reiterating the comments after Statistics Canada confirmed the nation had slipped into a recession.
However, Canadian leaders have unanimously rejected the idea, with PM Mark Carney saying simply: "It will never happen" - a sentiment echoed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
While the entirety of Canada joining the US is considerably unlikely, there is the possibility that Alberta could decide to shift its allegiances.
Alberta will have a referendum in October in which its citizens will decide if they want to separate from Canada - rather than putting that in action immediately, a Yes vote would warrant another "binding" referendum to decide once and for all.
If Alberta separates, some analysts believe the Canadian province could not support itself economically and may need to look South for assistance, be it through trade agreements or simply becoming the 51st state.

By Owain Flanders · Updated by hand Aug 24, 2026

How This Resolves

Kalshi's own wording: "If the United States acquires any part of Canada before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes."
Any part of Canada must come under formal US governance or jurisdiction - as a state, territory, or other classification - where it wasn't previously. An announcement that this will happen also counts. Simply leasing territory (e.g. a military base) does not.
No current Polymarket equivalent exists. Polymarket did run a "Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?" market, but that closed at the end of 2025 having resolved No, and hasn't been replaced with a live contract covering this longer window.

News & Context

What to Watch

Ongoing
Further 51st-state posts or comments from Trump, especially tied to Canadian economic data
Ongoing
Any shift in tone from PM Mark Carney or provincial leaders like Doug Ford
Ongoing
US-Canada trade negotiations, which Trump has repeatedly linked to the statehood idea
2029-01-21
Kalshi's resolution cutoff - market resolves

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