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Live Odds - Will Donald Trump win?
Best available price: Polymarket (+0.8 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Sep 7, 2026Kalshi2.6%Polymarket1.9%
Just In
Trump Told Donors 'We Need to Elect JD,' Source Confirms, as He Weighs Vance or Rubio in 2028
Trump Dons 'Trump 2028' Hat, Jokes About Fourth-Term Run and Says He 'Won Three Times' at WHCD
Trump Swipes at Journalists and Jokes About Running for a 4th Term at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Trump Again Floats Possibly Seeking 3rd Term. The Constitution Bars It, Scholars Say
Trump Keeps Teasing a Third Term — What to Know
Trump Told Donors 'We Need to Elect JD,' Source Confirms, as He Weighs Vance or Rubio in 2028
Trump Dons 'Trump 2028' Hat, Jokes About Fourth-Term Run and Says He 'Won Three Times' at WHCD
Trump Swipes at Journalists and Jokes About Running for a 4th Term at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Trump Again Floats Possibly Seeking 3rd Term. The Constitution Bars It, Scholars Say
Trump Keeps Teasing a Third Term — What to Know
Market Brief
- Trump's odds hit a new high in July when he 'joked' about running for a 'fourth' term as President while donning a Trump 2028 cap at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- Odds reached 2.9% on Kalshi but remain low because as per the 22nd Amendment a President can not serve more than two terms.
- Some believe that Trump could utilize a number of constitutional loopholes to serve again, including inheriting the Presidency as Vice President if Vance were to step down.
How This Resolves
- Resolves to whoever is inaugurated President in January 2029, based on AP/Fox/NBC race calls.
News & Context
Trump Told Donors 'We Need to Elect JD,' Source Confirms, as He Weighs Vance or Rubio in 2028
Trump Dons 'Trump 2028' Hat, Jokes About Fourth-Term Run and Says He 'Won Three Times' at WHCD
Trump Swipes at Journalists and Jokes About Running for a 4th Term at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Trump Again Floats Possibly Seeking 3rd Term. The Constitution Bars It, Scholars Say
Trump Keeps Teasing a Third Term — What to Know
What to Watch
- OngoingAny further statements from Trump himself on running again - these are what's actually moved the price so far, not policy or legal developments
- OngoingLegal/constitutional analysis if any court case or formal challenge to the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit actually emerges (none has as of this writing)
- 2028-11-07Election Day - market resolution
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