Kamala Harris - 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner

Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a promise of any return.

Live Odds - Will Kamala Harris win?

Kalshi

Chance of Yes4.3%

Bid 4.1% / Ask 4.3%

Polymarket

Chance of Yes3.6%

Bid 3.6% / Ask 3.7%

Best available price: Polymarket (+0.6 pts)

Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s

Price History

KalshiPolymarket

Just In

Market Brief

Harris was seen as the 'fairly obvious' Democratic frontrunner earlier in the year, according to Party insiders, but her odds have dropped after Emerson's national poll put her at 8% for the nomination.
Buttigieg, Newsom, and Ocasio-Cortez all led her in that poll, perhaps owing to Harris' failure to beat Trump in the previous election, although she did have to replace Biden in that race.
This page tracks her general-election, not her nomination, so she still has to cross one hurdle to reach the other, which shows in her low price.

By Owain Flanders · Updated by hand Jul 27, 2026

How This Resolves

Resolves to whoever is inaugurated President in January 2029, based on AP/Fox/NBC race calls.
This tracks the general-election winner contract specifically - Harris is also priced separately on a 'wins the Democratic nomination' market (Polymarket has that at about 8.9%), a different and easier bar than winning the presidency outright, which is what this page's odds (around 5%) actually track.

News & Context

What to Watch

Ongoing
Further primary polling, national and early-state - this week's Emerson and New Hampshire numbers are what's actually moving the conversation right now
Ongoing
Any formal steps toward a campaign (staff hires, PAC activity, early-state travel)
2028-11-07
Election Day - market resolution

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