Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome. Nothing on this page is financial advice or a promise of any return.
Live Odds - Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested?
Best available price: Polymarket (+1 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Sep 7, 2026Kalshi10.0%Polymarket6.5%
Just In
Anger Rises as ICC Member States Accused of Facilitating Netanyahu's Flight to Washington
Netanyahu Vows to Go to New York City Despite ICC Arrest Warrant, Mamdani
Mamdani Says NYC Can't Arrest Netanyahu but the Federal Government Should
Trump Rules Out Netanyahu Arrest as US Escalates Campaign Against ICC
Anger Rises as ICC Member States Accused of Facilitating Netanyahu's Flight to Washington
Netanyahu Vows to Go to New York City Despite ICC Arrest Warrant, Mamdani
Mamdani Says NYC Can't Arrest Netanyahu but the Federal Government Should
Trump Rules Out Netanyahu Arrest as US Escalates Campaign Against ICC
Market Brief
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2024, alleging war crimes and crimes against humanity in relation to the Gaza conflict.
- Some members of the ICC have claimed they would arrest Netanyahu if he stepped foot on their territory, including Ireland and the Netherlands, but the US is not an ICC member so has no obligation to do so.
- Netanyahu visited President Donald Trump in the White House in July and has expressed his intention on US TV to also visit NYC for the UN General Assembly.
- NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani is staunchly anti-Netanyahu and has repeatedly called for the arrest of the Israeli PM, but Trump has ruled out an arrest on US soil.
How This Resolves
- Both platforms require an actual arrest - Netanyahu taken into physical custody, booked, or surrendering to law enforcement. An arrest warrant being issued, an indictment, house arrest, electronic monitoring, or being briefly detained/questioned without a formal arrest do not count on either platform.
- Kalshi's own wording: "If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
- One real gap between the platforms: Kalshi's tracked contract here resolves before Jan 1, 2027, while Polymarket's resolves by Dec 31, 2026 - a day earlier. Both platforms also separately list shorter-dated sibling contracts (Kalshi has 'before Oct 1' and 'before Nov 1' versions; Polymarket has a 'by September 30' version) not tracked on this page since they expire too soon after publishing to stay useful.
News & Context
Trump Rules Out Netanyahu Arrest as US Escalates Campaign Against ICC
Mamdani Says NYC Can't Arrest Netanyahu but the Federal Government Should
Netanyahu Vows to Go to New York City Despite ICC Arrest Warrant, Mamdani
Anger Rises as ICC Member States Accused of Facilitating Netanyahu's Flight to Washington
What to Watch
- September 2026Netanyahu's planned UN visit to New York - the trip that reignited this market
- OngoingAny shift in enforcement stance from individual ICC member states as Netanyahu travels internationally
- 2026-12-31Polymarket's resolution cutoff - market resolves
- 2027-01-01Kalshi's resolution cutoff - one day later than Polymarket's
More in Politics
JD Vance - 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner
Live odds on JD Vance winning the 2028 presidential election.
Best Price: 
Kalshi 23.0%
Kalshi 23.0%View live odds →
Donald Trump - 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner
Live odds on Donald Trump winning the 2028 presidential election.
Best Price: 
Polymarket 2.0%
Polymarket 2.0%View live odds →
Kamala Harris - 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner
Live odds on Kamala Harris winning the 2028 presidential election.
Best Price: Polymarket 3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%View live odds →
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner
Live odds on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 presidential election.
Best Price: Kalshi 9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%View live odds →
PredictCentr Must Read
