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Live Odds - Will Democrats win the Senate?
Best available price: Kalshi (+4 pts)
Last checked just now · refreshes automatically every 30s
Price History
KalshiPolymarket
Sep 7, 2026Kalshi48.0%Polymarket51.5%
Just In
Alaska Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results
Michigan Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results: Stevens, El-Sayed, Rogers and More
These Four Republicans Joined Democrats to Block Trump's Military Action in Iran
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Beating Republican Mike Collins in Georgia — New Poll
Republicans in Congress Continue to Back Iran War Despite the Political Risk
Why All Eyes Are on Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate Primary
Susan Collins Calls Oversight Hearing Over Trump's $33B Ask for Iran War
Senate Republicans Are Now Pushing for More of a Say in Iran War
Alaska Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results
Michigan Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results: Stevens, El-Sayed, Rogers and More
These Four Republicans Joined Democrats to Block Trump's Military Action in Iran
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Beating Republican Mike Collins in Georgia — New Poll
Republicans in Congress Continue to Back Iran War Despite the Political Risk
Why All Eyes Are on Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate Primary
Susan Collins Calls Oversight Hearing Over Trump's $33B Ask for Iran War
Senate Republicans Are Now Pushing for More of a Say in Iran War
Market Brief
- The Democrats' odds hit an all-time-low of 17% just after the market opened in late 2024, but have since rallied, surpassing 50% in March 2026.
- The resurgence can be linked directly to the US-Iran conflict, which is hurting Republican-held seats.
- However, the Republicans are back in the lead, having surged to 56-57% in July, owing to the volatility of the market and the conflict driving it.
How This Resolves
- Resolves to whichever party holds the Senate majority after the 2026 midterms (a 50-50 split is broken by the Vice Presidency).
- If that's ambiguous, Kalshi defers to the party holding the President pro tempore and Polymarket to the party of the elected Majority Leader - in practice, always the same party.
News & Context
Alaska Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results
Michigan Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Results: Stevens, El-Sayed, Rogers and More
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Beating Republican Mike Collins in Georgia — New Poll
These Four Republicans Joined Democrats to Block Trump's Military Action in Iran
Republicans in Congress Continue to Back Iran War Despite the Political Risk
Susan Collins Calls Oversight Hearing Over Trump's $33B Ask for Iran War- Why All Eyes Are on Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate Primary
Senate Republicans Are Now Pushing for More of a Say in Iran War
What to Watch
- 2026-08-04Michigan primary - open Democratic seat after Gary Peters' retirement, a key control-math race
- 2026-08-11Wisconsin primary - one of the most competitive remaining Senate contests
- 2026-08-18Alaska primary - nonpartisan primary in a race both parties are contesting
- OngoingUS-Iran conflict developments - the main driver of this market's swing since early 2026
- 2026-11-03Election Day - market resolution
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