Benjamin Netanyahu might have recently sat down with Donald Trump at the White House in front of the world's cameras, but there are plenty of countries across the globe where he could not make such a public appearance.
The Israeli Prime Minister, who has directed war efforts against Gaza and other neighboring countries, is accused by various states of breaking international law by conducting genocide. More than 120 countries that are part of the International Criminal Court (ICC) are obliged to enforce arrest warrants on Netanyahu if he appears within their territory.
Now, there has been another major escalation in that story. Although it is not a member of the ICC, Turkey has issued its own request for an Interpol Red Notice for the Israeli PM. A Red Notice is a request to law enforcement across the globe to locate and arrest a person wanted by a country or international tribunal.
Turkey's Justice Ministry has formally issued the request, which includes a Red Notice for both Netanyahu and Israeli security figure Afek Moskovitch, in relation to Israel's interception of a flotilla in international waters.
“a Red Notice is a request, not an international arrest warrant”
Notably, the country already issued a domestic Turkish arrest warrant for Netanyahu in November 2025 in relation to alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza. However, this request, if approved by Interpol, requires other countries to act on Turkey's behalf. Critically, a Red Notice is a request, not an international arrest warrant. Each member country decides what legal effect to give it, if any.
The odds for Netanyahu's arrest, which are available on both Polymarket and Kalshi, have not shifted much despite the news. Kalshi has an arrest in 2026 at around 10%, and has so since August 10. Polymarket has the comparable market price at 6%.