Israel is not making many friends on the world stage at the moment. The war with Gaza, which the International Criminal Court has alleged involved war crimes, and the subsequent conflicts in neighboring countries have caused many nations around the world to turn their backs on Israel and its PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Turkey is chief among these, although the nation's disagreement with Israel has been boiling for some time. Now, it seems the pair are locking heads more than ever, and the odds of a military clash have risen to 19% on Polymarket, up eight points in just five days.
This week, Turkey officially called for the arrest of Netanyahu. Turkey's Justice Ministry requested that Interpol issue a Red Notice, which would urge law enforcement across the globe to arrest the Israeli PM on sight. The country had already issued a domestic arrest warrant for the PM in November 2025 in relation to alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza.
“antisemitic dictator who massacred Kurds”
In response, the Prime Minister of Israel's official X account called Turkey leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an "antisemitic dictator who massacred Kurds, harbors Hamas terrorists, occupies Cyprus, and jails record numbers of journalists and politicians who oppose him."
The post also criticized Erdoğan's attempts to "extend his aggression against Israel into Syria." Just this week, Turkey declared it would continue to support Syria's sovereignty after Israel bombed a Syrian air base where Turkish troops were supposedly about to deploy. Turkey has denied that it had any military presence in the country, while Israel has said the Turkish President is dragging Turkey into "dangerous adventures."
On August 8, Turkey signed a new Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The agreement requires each state to join in the defense of the others if they are attacked. Analysts named Jordan, Syria, Qatar, and Kuwait as possible future members. Egypt has been floated as a possible addition too, although a lot less likely.
Erdoğan's own rhetoric has escalated too. He has called Israel "war addicted" and talked of the "liberation of Jerusalem."
Notably, Turkey is a formal member of NATO and a long-standing partner of the US. In 2025, when things seemed to be heating up between Turkey and Israel in Syria, the Trump administration pushed both sides to talk in Azerbaijan. A 24/7 direct communication line has been active since April 2025, designed to prevent clashes between the two nations.