The race for control of the Senate in 2026 is tight, so much so that on Polymarket the odds are exactly 50/50 between the Democrats and Republicans. While both have been in the lead at multiple points since March, it seems the contest is currently too close to call.
Control of the Senate has an important effect, for the country as a whole, but for none more so than its current leader President Donald Trump. So far, the sitting President has been impeached twice by the House of Representatives, both during his first term.
The House impeached Trump in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress related to Ukraine aid, and then once more in January 2021 in relation to the January 6 Capitol riot. Importantly, Trump was acquitted on both counts by the Senate, meaning he was not ejected from the Presidency.
“Democrat House Representatives have filed multiple articles of impeachment”
Trump has not been impeached so far in his current term, despite a lot of noise around whether or not he should be. Democrat House Representatives have filed multiple articles of impeachment, but it is up to the House to vote on them. Since Republicans rule the House at the moment, none of these have been brought to the floor.
However, that could soon change. Odds for the Democrats to control the House after mid-terms have soared to 89% on Polymarket. If this happens as expected, there is a high chance Trump will face at least one impeachment after the end of 2026 when the new House is in place. This is why Trump's odds of impeachment before the end of 2026 are only 2%, but his odds of impeachment before his term ends are 67%.
That said, his chances of announcing the end of his Presidency before his term finishes are 24%, as per Kalshi, compared to just 5% for this year specifically. An impeachment conviction (which would result in Trump losing his job) requires a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate. Even if Democrats win control, they would still need a good number of Republicans to cross over and turn their back on Trump for a conviction.
Notably, these odds also include the chance of Trump resigning for health reasons.