The race is heating up between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. They are competing for the Texas Senate, and if the last four independent polls are anything to go by then Talarico is taking a narrow lead.
It began with a poll by Fox News, conducted from July 23-27. This had Talarico as 51% favorite to Paxton at 48%. There have been three more since then, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll (Talarico up five points), Texas Southern University poll (Talarico up two points), and Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll (Talarico up four points). The latter was released on Friday.
“on June 1, Talarico was around 40% to Paxton's 60%.”
Notably, prediction markets have the race a lot tighter. The current price for Talarico is 51% on Kalshi and Polymarket, while Paxton is 49%, meaning they are close to a dead heat. That gap has closed significantly over the Summer - on June 1, Talarico was around 40% to Paxton's 60%.
The Texas Senate is typically a comfortable Republican hold, but many are now viewing it as much more competitive.
Paxton managed to defeat John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff in May with a 28-point landslide. However, "that bruising contest left scars," according to Daron Shaw, the pollster who conducted the Fox News poll. "He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents," Shaw explained.
The Republican representative also has some personal baggage. Polling shows real character concerns among voters, owing to felony securities fraud charges, an impeachment (for which he was later acquitted), and a messy public divorce.
The Texas Senate election will take place on November 3, 2026.