In the world of cinema, English director Christopher Nolan might accurately be described as a hit-maker. The Dark Knight, Inception, Interstellar - all of these films are Nolan's, and all of them sit among the top 20 films of all time, according to IMDB. The former is number three, below only The Shawshank Redemption and The Godfather.
Even his less popular pictures are hits in their own right - Memento has an IMDB rating of 8.4, The Prestige 8.5, and Dunkirk 7.8. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer, the last movie he directed before his most recent venture, secured Nolan his first Academy Awards, both for Best Picture and Best Director.
Needless to say, when many heard he was releasing an interpretation of Homer's epic tale The Odyssey, the excitement was palpable. When fans heard the cast list, that quiet excitement became an uproar. Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, Tom Holland, Robert Pattinson, Zendaya, Elliot Page, Charlize Theron, and even rapper superstar Travis Scott star in the film, which was shot with IMAX cameras in stunning locations across the world.
According to the critics, the result lived up to the hype. It has received near-unanimous praise across major publication reviews, with some even deeming it a "five-star sweep." It has already positioned itself among the best of Nolan, with an 8.5 ranking on IMDB and a Rotten Tomatoes score of 94%.
As such, The Odyssey is in the early conversation for the next Academy Awards… the 99th edition of the ceremony no less. Prediction market platform Kalshi has the chances of another Nolan Best Picture win at 50% at the time of writing - odds that have gradually increased in a fairly-steady slope since the release of the film.
Now, in order to assess whether those are fair odds (or even underrated) we first need to take a look at Nolan's sole Best Picture victory. He won two years ago for Oppenheimer, a dramatization of the creation of the atomic bomb and the life of its father J. Robert Oppenheimer, played by Cillian Murphy. While the film generated widespread praise, it did receive some negative response in its failure to focus on the human toll of the bomb.
Taking just the numbers into consideration, Oppenheimer is below The Odyssey on IMDB at 8.2 and down 1% on Rotten Tomatoes. Then there are the box office results… in their first two weeks, Oppenheimer made $400m worldwide, while The Odyssey raked in $639.6m. In fact, The Odyssey secured Nolan his biggest ever opening weekend, with $264m globally. Ultimately, Oppenheimer went on to become one of the biggest successes in cinema history for an R-rated drama, finishing with close to $1bn worldwide, but The Odyssey is on track for well over that.
The numbers don't tell the full tale though. What this could well boil down to is what films The Odyssey will have to compete against. As per Kalshi, the biggest contenders include Dune: Part Three (16%) and Digger (7%). These are both big budget movies with major stars in Timothee Chalamet and Tom Cruise, while Oppenheimer had to compete with Barbie (not typical Oscars Best Picture material) and Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things (a lower budget project starring Emma Stone).
So, this year is going to be a tough one. But it is worth noting that this is the third and final offering in the Dune franchise - a sci-fi trilogy that has failed to win Best Picture to date. It has won eight Oscars across the two instalments but mainly for sound and visual effects.
Digger, meanwhile, could be the dark horse. It's a satirical black comedy that follows Digger Rockwell, played by Tom Cruise, an eccentric, ultra-wealthy oil tycoon who triggers a global environmental disaster. It's also directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, who won Best Picture in 2015 for Birdman, a similarly whacky story based around an eccentric main character.
That said, it's hard to look past a Nolan IMAX epic on the scale of The Odyssey when it comes to Best Picture. With Alejandro G. Iñárritu involved, there is never going to be a sure-thing in this race, but Matt Damon's journey to the underworld and back is as close as you might get to one. Underrated? Perhaps not… but Kalshi's 50% seems a fair price until we can get a good look at the competition.